As we move toward the end of 2025, the molasses market is entering a rare and strategic window — the perfect time to buy.
Prices have softened, supply is abundant, and key regional dynamics are working in buyers’ favor.
For importers, feed producers, and industrial users, this is the moment to secure long-term value before the market rebounds in early 2026

1. Oversupply from Thailand Creates a Buyer’s Market

The first key factor is oversupply from Thailand, One of the largest molasses exporter in Southeast Asia.
According to the USDA 2025 forecast, Thailand’s sugarcane output for the 2025/26 season has significantly increased.
More cane means more sugar — and consequently, more molasses as a by-product.

When domestic storage tanks fill up, that surplus must flow into the export market.
The result? More supply, lower prices, and greater bargaining power for importers.
This isn’t a sign of weakness — it’s an opportunity for buyers to lock in volume while producers are eager to clear tanks before the next crushing season

2. Philippines’ Import Regulations Shift Regional Demand

Another major influence comes from the Philippines’ Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA), which continues to enforce import restrictions and high import liens to protect local sugarcane producers.

These tighter policies have reduced the country’s appetite for imported molasses — indirectly pushing more export volume toward alternative destinations such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and India.

This temporary redirection of trade flows increases short-term availability for regional buyers — especially those ready to purchase before competition heats up again in Q1 2026.

3. The Market Cycle — Bottoming Out Before 2026

Molasses prices naturally move in cycles.
After months of high production and full storage, Q4 traditionally marks the price floor — the point where prices stabilize before demand returns.

Right now, several supporting conditions align:

• High stocks but slowing production entering early 2026.
• Freight rates holding steady after mid-year volatility.
• New ethanol and feed producers expected to increase demand next quarter.

This combination signals a market bottom, not a crash — and smart buyers are already stepping in

4. Why Late 2025 Is the Smartest Time to Buy

For buyers with capacity and foresight, the current environment offers several advantages:

• Lowest prices of the cycle — driven by oversupply and soft regional demand.
• Flexible sellers — exporters clearing storage before new production begins.
• Stable logistics — freight costs are predictable before holiday congestion.
• Future upside — with demand projected to rebound in Q1–Q2 2026.

In short, you’re buying at the bottom of the curve — right before supply tightens and prices strengthen

5. 2026 Outlook: Firmer Prices Ahead

Looking forward, the molasses market is expected to tighten gradually as:

• Thailand’s next crushing season starts later, reducing short-term supply.
• Ethanol production across Southeast Asia grows by 5–8%, absorbing more molasses feedstock.
• Freight and energy costs are forecasted to rise slightly in early 2026.

This means price recovery is highly likely once demand returns and current stocks are absorbed.
Those who lock contracts now will enjoy better margins and supply certainty when the market turns upward.

Conclusion

The current softness in molasses prices isn’t a warning — it’s a window of opportunity.
Oversupply from Thailand and import restrictions from the Philippines have temporarily tilted the market in favor of buyers.

By acting now, importers can secure low-cost, high-quality supply before 2026 brings tighter stocks and stronger demand.
As always, timing is everything — and End of 2025 is that time.